2025 Peak Season Arrived Early—Here’s Why It Matters
By Paloma Burnell – Senior Vice President, Sales
Back to School supplies, Halloween decorations, and costumes arrived on shelves even earlier than usual this year.
Traditionally, ocean freight peak season runs from July through October, driven by retailers’ desire to ramp up inventories ahead of the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. But this year, that familiar pattern shifted. Peak volumes arrived nearly a month early, with July recording the highest import activity in advance of the typical August–September surge.
What’s Driving the Change?
Several key factors contributed to this shift, with strategic implications for importers and logistics partners alike:
1. 2025 Tariff Uncertainty Prompted Front‑Loading
The temporary U.S. – China tariff pause announced in May 2025 – reducing duties from approximately 145% to 30% – sparked a rush. Importers moved quickly to secure goods before the potential reinstatement of higher tariffs in mid‑August. The result: a surge in bookings from late May through the end of June that pulled typical peak volumes forward.
2. Tight Capacity and Rate Volatility
These two issues accelerated demand and strained vessel capacity, overwhelming logistics infrastructure. Spot rates soared—up 145% on Trans‑Pacific lanes, 139% to the East Coast, and even higher to Northern Europe. Congestion followed at major U.S. gateways like Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA and Savannah, GA.
3. Retailers Shifted Sales Strategies
Large retailers launched early-than-ever back-to-school promotions to remain competitive. Inventory that would normally hit shelves in early August landed weeks earlier, fueling trends like “Halloween in July.”
Looking Ahead
Right now, August’s trade policy decisions remain uncertain—but one thing is clear: adaptability is no longer optional. At STG Logistics, we partner with clients to anticipate market disruptions, minimize risk, and maintain supply chain velocity no matter the climate. As the industry continues to shift, we’re here to help you stay ahead.
